Mexico Grand Prix predictions: Kimi Antonelli needs ninth place on Sunday 1 November to be the 2026 world champion. We went 0 for 3 in Austin, and we’re going again. Our three calls (one on the season, one on form, one brave one): 1) Antonelli is champion by Sunday night. 2) Max Verstappen makes the podium. 3) The brave one: Charles Leclerc wins the Mexico City Grand Prix. Our podium: Leclerc, Antonelli, Verstappen. We’ll grade this prediction after the race. Prediction record: 0/3.
The maths: Antonelli leads George Russell by 123 points and Lewis Hamilton by 124, with 125 left. He is champion if he finishes ninth or better, or if neither Russell nor Hamilton wins the race (or if he finishes tenth and Hamilton wins).
Why: Antonelli has finished ninth or better in 16 of 18 Grands Prix this year. Verstappen has been on the podium six Grands Prix in a row (Monza to Austin) and has won in Mexico five times, more than any driver (2017, 2018, 2021, 2022, 2023, with the old cars). Leclerc’s last five: 4th, 4th, 4th, 2nd, 2nd. Mercedes have won 12 of 18, so yes, it’s brave.
Tell us your podium in the comments.
The US GP review (how we went 0 for 3): https://youtu.be/sJfmIrnC0AM
More F1 stories: https://www.thesecondgrid.com
Sources (as of 27 Oct 2026): formula1.com results, driver pages and “Points permutations” (26 Oct 2026); Sky Sports and ESPN title permutations (26 Oct 2026); Grande Prêmio (25 Oct 2026); Wikipedia, Mexico City Grand Prix and Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez (altitude about 2,240 m); RacingNews365 and ESPN on racing at altitude.
Footage: the official FORMULA 1 YouTube channel – Race Highlights | 2025 Mexico City Grand Prix (youtu.be/hTqxfkWRimk), Race Highlights | 2026 United States Grand Prix (youtu.be/srLm23RUAH0) and Drivers React After The Race | 2026 United States Grand Prix (youtu.be/q03CkMtY9CE). Short excerpts only, no team radio. © Formula One Management. Used for commentary and criticism.
Photos: Getty Images via formula1.com.
Track map: Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez centreline from bacinger/f1-circuits (MIT licence), drawn by The Second Grid; an illustration (the climb is a diagram, not to scale).
Music and sound design: original, The Second Grid.
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